nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

New Watchlist Algorithm for "Projected" and "This Month"? (edited).

NavyGolf

Coach Natalie,

Work has obviously been done to make the Watchlist "This Month" numbers be more realistic.

Can you provide the community with what makes up the "Projected" bucket?

Spent so far is now only things that have already been spent, that is good as it used to be spent and planned spend.

Projected looks to be more than "Planned Spend" so can you share what the developers threw into that bucket? All my "Projected" numbers are higher than my 12 month average and my "Target."

Thanks!

Find more posts tagged with

Watchlist

Accepted answers

All comments

Coach Natalie

@NavyGolf, thanks for posting your inquiry to the Community!

According to our help article, this is how Watchlist totals are calculated:

The "Monthly Average" shows what a typical month of spending looks like by using up to 12 months of transaction history, including the current month. It only includes months that have a full set of data, defining a “full” month as one where transactions for that Watchlist start on or before the 5th; months where data begins on the 6th or later are excluded. The current month is always displayed for real-time tracking. This approach keeps the average realistic, based on consistent, long-term habits instead of incomplete or partial months.
The "Year to date" amount provides a cumulative total of your spending for that specific Watchlist's card since the beginning of the current calendar year.
The "This month" amount displayed for Watchlists is based on transactions that have already occurred during the month, along with any upcoming Reminders scheduled for the remaining days of the month.
The "Projected" amount displayed for Watchlists is calculated in two steps. First, it divides the "This month" total by the number of days that have passed in the current month to determine your average daily spending, including upcoming Reminders. Next, this daily average is multiplied by the number of days remaining in the month, and that amount is added to what you’ve already spent to produce the projected total.

When viewing my own Watchlists, the only difference I'm noticing is the 'This Month' amount, which no longer seems to be accounting for upcoming reminders and instead just shows what's already been spent for the month. I'll submit a request to have our help article updated.

As for the 'Projected' amount, are you seeing something different than what the article describes? I'm not personally noticing any differences here.

Let us know!

NavyGolf

Coach,

After the change made, the "Projected" amount is now simply "Spent so far" normalized for a full month (which the description is saying), but what the calculation is ignoring now is that we (if you are using planned spend and bills, recurring, etc.) have a VERY good idea of the planned portions of our spend for the rest of the month. So technically, the description is correct (but meaningless).

With how it is, front end loaded expenses will continue to make "Projected" meaningless throughout the bulk of the month…which is what everyone has complained about prior.

A better "Projected" would be something like:

calculation 1 = Spent so Far + Planned Expenses/Billed that are set as recurring transactions = "Projected"
calculation 2 = "12 Month Average" - Calc 1 = Difference
If Calc 1 is > "12 Month Average" then "Projected" = Calc 1.
If Calc 1 is < "12 Month Average" then "Projected" = Calc 1 + Calc 2/2 - so half of the difference added to calc 1.

I believe this will give you a reasonable, but most conservative value for "Projected."

DryHeat

@NavyGolf

There is a another thread discussing possible better ways to calculate Watchlist projections that you might find interesting. (See below)

My own suggestion was something like this [edited for clarity]:

The amount a Watchlist projects for the month should be the sum of two things:
(1) The total amount of recurring bills and subscriptions for the month that fit the Watchlist categories. This does not need to be adjusted. It already represents the full amount scheduled for the month.
(2) The amount of other spending (not a recurring bill/subscription) so far in those categories, adjusted for a full month. Simplifi currently uses the formula "((spending so far/days so far) * days in month)" and that is probably as good as any.
Calculating the projection this way would still be problematic if you have a large, unscheduled expense come up, but it would at least avoid the worst pitfalls.

https://community.simplifimoney.com/discussion/4588/watchlists-better-calculations-for-projected-amount-edited

Coach Natalie

@NavyGolf, thank you for confirming what you're seeing for "Projected"!

I went ahead and marked both of these Ideas as completed due to this change, which I was able to confirm when testing in my own Quicken Simplifi:

https://community.simplifimoney.com/discussion/2989/watchlists-exclude-upcoming-reminders-from-spent-so-far-amount-edited

https://community.simplifimoney.com/discussion/4588/watchlists-better-calculations-for-projected-amount-edited

If you'd like to see changes to the current (new) calculations, I'd recommend creating a new Idea post so other users can cast their votes and our product team can review it. Our FAQ here has more details on how to accomplish this:

https://community.simplifimoney.com/discussion/998/creating-and-voting-for-ideas-in-the-community

We look forward to seeing your new request!

NavyGolf

Coach,

I don't think this needs to be handled with a Vote for a new Idea.

The facts are that the developers made a ridiculous change to the Watchlist calculations by completely ignoring Upcoming/Recurring/Known Planned expenses anywhere in their calculations.

A vote by the community, which would then take over 3 years (that's how long it has taken them to make this silly update to the calculation) to implement is dumb.

Whoever the PM (project manager) was on this change should be notified that they are completely ignoring things and directed towards a better calculation.

Thanks for listening.

Coach Natalie

@NavyGolf, I understand your concern, and I appreciate you taking the time to explain what you feel is missing from the current calculation.

The reason I recommended a new Idea is that Ideas provide a way for the community to collectively vote on and communicate desired changes to the product team. That said, I understand that you don't feel another Idea is necessary in this case.

Thanks again for the detailed feedback.

DryHeat

@NavyGolf

The facts are that the developers made a ridiculous change to the Watchlist calculations by completely ignoring Upcoming/Recurring/Known Planned expenses anywhere in their calculations.

The way Watchlists treat Bills and Subscriptions (in the Projected expense) is more confusing than just ignoring them.

Watchlists include paid Bills and Subscriptions in the "per diem" calculation which is then extended to Project the full month's expenses. But they ignore unpaid Bills and Subscriptions.

The result is that a Watchlist for a category with a $2000 Bill due tomorrow will Project zero for the month.

But a Watchlist where a $176.66 bill was paid yesterday Projects $1766.60 for the month:

In my opinion, Watchlists are only useful for categories that do not have associated Bills or Subscriptions. It doesn't have to be that way (see my suggested calculation above), but that's the way it is.

NavyGolf

Coach Natalie,

I was going to let this rest, but I just can't. Looking deeper into this, there is a GLARING inconsistency in what the algorithm/page is doing.

Please go to one of your watchlist items. Click on it, so that you get it full page. You will see the statistics on the top - 12 Month, Year to Date, This Month - Spent so Far, Projected, Target.

As noted before, Spent So Far is ONLY what has actually been spent, EXCLUDING Planned Bills/Income/Recurring.

But now look at the graph below this, you will see in the current month (September) that the bar graph includes Spent so Far and Any Planned/Bills/Recurring. This is a much more representative figure of what my September spend is going to be - the very core of what Watchlist is supposed to be monitoring.

This bar graph data is how the Spent So Far used to be calculated - and should continue to be calculated!.

Here is a snip of what I am talking about. Please see that my Spent so Far in this category is $0.00 and Projected is $0.00 (because of the silly math in the new algorithm - the old algorithm wasn't much better for Projected either. Another reason that Projected should include Planned Bills/Recurring/etc, not simply Spent so Far x Days in Month/Days Transpired). But you will see in the bar graph that September INCLUDES the Bills and Income you see in the bottom left of the screen.

And about 3/4 down the page, you see "Breakdown" - this is clearly Spent so Far + Planned Upcoming. This used to be what "Spent So Far" represented before the change.

Please get with your developers and show them the error of their ways. They can reach out to me for my suggestions.

Coach Natalie

@NavyGolf, thanks for the additional information!

I still don't see details in our Help Center article explaining how the new Watchlist calculations work. With that, I recommend contacting our Support team directly, as they have the tools to determine whether what you're seeing is expected behavior or if the issue needs to be escalated. How to Contact Support | Quicken Simplifi Help Center

As previously recommended, you can also create an Idea post here in the community if you'd like to request changes to Quicken Simplifi. Ideas are a great way for our product team to see user pain points and use cases from multiple users.

https://community.simplifimoney.com/discussion/998/creating-and-voting-for-ideas-in-the-community

If you contact Support, please let us know what they find so the information can help other community members as well!